Where will Manny go?

The Pacquiao-Duterte feud within PDP-Laban has been an interesting story to follow perhaps because of the drama and the potential implications a Pacquiao-Duterte split could mean for the 2022 elections. A few headlines and articles have made me write this piece, in particular, one from Rappler where the prospect of Manny moving to the Liberal Party is discussed and one from Manolo Quezon’s column in the Inquirer about how Manny isn’t the real problem of the ruling coalition.

They both give good points (well, at least the opinion piece since the other one is a news report) but there are alternative views which we have to consider. My argument is that Manny Pacquiao’s split from the ruling coalition will still be detrimental to the pro-Duterte cause in 2022 and that the prospects of Manny leaving will revitalize what I would call “dormant” political blocs in search of a new champion.

I. How Will Manny Hurt the Dutertes?

Quezon talks about the Duterte-Marcos-Arroyo axis as the ruling coalition which seeks to maintain its dominance in the coming elections. His argument was that the Marcoses and their ultimate desire to reclaim the presidency through Bongbong is the greatest threat to the ruling coalition. I won’t argue against this since indeed, the Marcoses are a pillar to the house of cards which Duterte has built in the five years he has been in power; however, we cannot cast aside the threat that Pacquiao poses to the ruling coalition.

First, the split will cause a crisis of coherence. No one benefits from a party split since it will only confuse the grassroots efforts which was a vital tactic used by the Duterte machinery in 2016. PDP-Laban will no longer have the credibility it once had and it will definitely cause confusion among local chapters and local politicians, most especially if PDP-Laban will be replaced by what could potentially be a national version of Sara’s Hugpong ng Pagbabago. At least, in terms of grassroots organizing, the entire situation would look incoherent, confusing, and chaotic. (I’d have to caution myself on this point, however, since the possibility of an organized chaos still exists. In 2016, Duterte’s grassroots organizing was a mix of PDP-Laban and the MRRD-NECC — two separate entities which just opened more doors of opportunity for the public to participate in his campaign.)

Second, which I feel very strongly about, is the threat of Pacquiao to the geographic magnitude that the Duterte-Marcos-Arroyo coalition delivers. This assumes that Filipinos have a tendency to vote based on their regional ties with the candidate or the concept of bailiwicks (thank you again, Manolo Quezon, for a great explainer on this concept). Marcos delivers most of the Luzon votes from his solid north base all the way to the Marcos loyalists in the greater Manila area, while Duterte delivers Mindanao and the Cebuano vote for obvious reasons. Arroyo, meanwhile, delivers her mastery over the old political establishment for her two outsider counterparts.

Now imagine Manny Pacquiao in the picture given the same logic of bailiwicks. Pacquiao is a proud son of Mindanao, particularly the Cotabato region where he is from. It will be a no-brainer as well for the guy to campaign around the Visayan regions while speaking their language since that has been his branding ever since he was just a famous boxer. The potential appeal of Pacquiao only spells one thing for the Dutertes: a split base. Manny and Sara, or Bong Go, whoever Duterte’s anointed one would be, share the same political bailiwick. Splitting the vote will only hurt them for sure.

Third, and this is a takeaway from the previous point, now that Pacquiao is poised to leave Duterte behind and perhaps pursue his agenda of splitting Mindanao, what would Marcos do? It’s simple: take advantage of the opportunity. Knowing that the Dutertes will have to face a battle of their own with Pacquiao, it seems pretty convenient for Bongbong Marcos — who, mind you, won the whole of Luzon except for Bicol, Quezon, Batangas, and Tarlac in 2016 — to run for the presidency under that premise. He’s likely poised to win if he goes up against his fellow axis members.

And where does that leave Arroyo? Well, for all we care, history tells us how she would side with whomever looks poised to win. She did it to Gibo in 2010, so what’s stopping her from doing it again in 2022? Anything to prevent a Liberal recapture which will most likely make things difficult for her.

So is Manny a threat? Yes. Is he the greatest threat? To an extent, yes. His split from Duterte will trigger many reactions from the ruling coalition that will unleash and enable Bongbong Marcos’s true intentions. The coalition needs a good reason to be broken and Manny will just make it more convenient for the Marcoses to opt out.

II. Now, where will Manny go?

Before I begin this section, allow me to say that Manny joining the LP will be mutually detrimental to both sides. It will alienate both the LP and Manny Pacquiao from their bases. Personality politics as a factor aside, Pacquiao being labeled as a dilawan will be the dominant narrative and that will only distract his campaign. No one from his campaign wants that.

I’ll list down Manny Pacquiao’s four options now based on his history and his allies. He’ll most probably troop back to the Nacionalista Party (with the Villars) or the United Nationalist Alliance (with the Binays), or he would join the ever-so-resilient Nationalist People’s Coalition (with Chavit Singson). His fourth option is to gut it out within PDP-Laban as a faction (which is very messy in so many aspects).

The first three options are what I call dormant political blocs. They consist of either the old political establishment or the corporation-backed parties who have remained in the political sidelines for a while now. What Pacquiao brings to the table is a potential champion, a potential revitalizing element that could bring back the good old days of their once-feared machineries.

Nacionalista Party

The NP is an obvious choice given that he joined this party in 2010 for his first congressional run. He was a Villar ally and has also been seen with Willie Revillame as recent as February 2021 for a guesting in Wowowin (Note: Willie has been a longtime Villar ally). Add to these the talk of Willie Revillame considering a Senate run, there’s definitely a lot of space for the Nacionalista Party to adopt Manny Pacquiao as their standard bearer because of his history with the party and its patrons. His biggest obstacle, however, will be Mark Villar, who remains a staunch Duterte ally and would seem to be seeking some form of higher office after appearing in a Father’s Day ad with his father. He would definitely want to get the President’s endorsement for a Senate run, but who knows, maybe the richest political family in the Philippines thinks they can spend their way to every political post they desire.

The NP has always been uncertain about their reputation which is why one could consider them as more of a political front of the corporate interests of Manny Villar rather than an actual political party. Take for example their reluctance to endorse a VP candidate in 2016 which left Alan Cayetano, Bongbong Marcos, and Antonio Trillanes — all NP members — virtually partyless. No one is sure if they’re the party of the Villars or of the Marcoses, which is why they have been sidelined most of the time from the political limelight. Right now, it seems apparent that the Marcoses intend to work things alone since they managed to do well in 2016 and 2019 without the NP. They are in desperate need of a new face that is not a Villar because no Villar is currently ripe enough to win the presidency. Manny could be their guy.

United Nationalist Alliance

UNA was Pacquiao’s most prominent party prior to Duterte’s term. He was a Binay ally through and through. Given that Jejomar Binay has been making noise in Twitter for quite a while now, the prospects of an UNA comeback appear to be imminent. Whatever Binay’s plans would be, he knows his party and his old political machinery needs a way to revitalize their bloc. We’re not sure, however, if Binay can command enough votes in the Cagayan Valley where he usually can win given that he’ll be up against a Marcos and the solid north is, for the lack of a better term, solid.

This is particularly concerning for the opposition since UNA and the LP can actually consider reconciliation and create a broad unity similar to the 2007 Genuine Opposition which consisted of the reformist LP and the populist PDP-Laban under Jejomar Binay and Nene Pimentel. In any case, Manny Pacquiao’s candidacy with UNA is a prospective scenario where he will be doing Binay more of a favor than Binay doing him a favor.

Nationalist People’s Coalition

Manny Pacquiao’s longtime patron, Narvacan, Ilocos Sur Mayor Chavit Singson, joined the NPC last week. The guy is not just any Mayor and kingpin but also the president of the League of Municipalities of the Philippines. This means that Chavit possesses a lot of influence among LGUs around the country along with the resilient NPC base of politicians in the local scene.

Take note that the NPC is now controlled by Senate President Tito Sotto after the passing of Danding Cojuangco, the party’s chairman. Sotto is term limited from another Senate term and has his eyes set on the Vice Presidency with Sen. Panfilo Lacson. Right now, I wouldn’t consider Lacson as a serious candidate yet and I would leave the door very open for Manny Pacquiao to be NPC’s newest adopted son. It makes perfect sense. Chavit has the LGUs and NPC has its large array of corporate donors tied to the San Miguel Corporation. If Pacquiao joining UNA will benefit the party more than the candidate, Pacquiao joining the NPC will benefit the candidate more than the party. NPC’s potential takeaway? Another presidential candidate they can back and perhaps, control for six years.

A PDP-Laban Faction

Nothing’s stopping Pacquiao from forcing an internal (and potentially legal) rift that will last until 2022 within the party. PDP-Laban is currently split between those who joined the party after Duterte won and its original founders led by Koko Pimentel. Koko himself has been using a kind of puritan rhetoric against Cusi where he would call some members of the party as turncoats.

Historically, some elections dating way back to the pre-1972 era have seen candidates running under separate wings of a single party. Factions aren’t a stranger in Philippine politics but the post-1986 era has incentivized the formation of new breakaway parties rather than operating with two separate wings.

Manny can always try this out, but I see no rationality behind it. He’ll be on the losing end of many things just like what I discussed earlier.

III. Prospects for 2022

Manny Pacquiao’s candidacy seems to be 100% sure at this point. He will definitely cause tension within the Duterte-Marcos-Arroyo axis and hurt the chances of the administration coalition. He can be an accidental hero for the opposition if they can get to unite behind a single candidate or can also cause trouble if he joins UNA. Pacquiao’s best bet right now is to join any of the two corporation-backed parties in the country in the NP and the NPC. It would only cost him certain concessions and backdoor deals with the nation’s business elite.

At the end of the day, this article has to end addressed to the oppositionist reader. Given what we know now, the best proactive measure is to reconcile with the old political establishment that used to band together against Arroyo while at the same time, operating within the context of a post-2016 political order where the old reformist political rhetoric will no longer work.

We cannot simply rely on a Pacquiao candidacy, rejoice, and hope Leni runs to unite the opposition. Remember, Marcos took the entire balance of Luzon in 2016. Metro Manila will be a test of our messaging. The reliability of the yellow Bicol and Visayas will be tested against a divided ruling coalition. There will be many provinces which we have to either flip to the opposition or at least split to our advantage. That work is ours as the opposition, not Manny’s.

*All sources are indicated in the text hyperlinks.